Bear-Market

The Fed Is Ramping Down Printing Money, Raising Interest Rates. What Might Result?

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For most people, what the Fed does in trying to control the economy seems to keep our attention only for the 30 seconds it takes a news anchor to report it.

When the pandemic crashed the stock market back in 2020, I remained focused. The first thing I did was get back into the market, buying financially sound stock in companies dragged down in price from fear by investors that the world was ending. It was the best decision I made.

As I expected, stocks rebounded quickly.

The Fed then pumped money into the economy at an alarming rate, in the form of buying back $500 Billion in Treasury notes and $200 Billion in agency backed mortgage securities. That’s not to mention the trillions of dollars sent directly to taxpayers in stimulus packages, or the $2 Trillion spent on Covid relief programs.

Now, I’m focused on the decision of the Fed to finally cut back on the printing of money, and to raise interest rates. Economists believe interest rates may see increases 3 times, over the course of next year.

What this could mean is, people will not have extra money to pump into stocks, especially as the end of delaying mortgage payments, paying rent, and paying utilities comes to an end.

I don’t disagree with the decision to applying brakes on the printing of money, but there will be consequences.

Those who understand the stock market will not invest in the riskier growth stocks that have delivered large gains since the pandemic began due to the amount of free money received, but will look for safe havens for their money.

The richest people have already begun to find those safe havens by purchasing property, art, and other assets that maintain their value.

Taking out a loan next year will require a higher interest rate be paid on it. This not only affects the average Joe/Jane, but companies will be less inclined to seek loans for expansion, or improvements to their business.

As money is moved out of the stock market, it will be seen as a Bear Market, and that will have novice retail investors begin moving their money elsewhere, as well.

I’m a big supporter of Crypto currency, as a hedge against inflation, but I don’t fool myself into believing Crypto markets won’t also be affected. It is a volatile area and can be a gut-wrenching experience when watching wild swings in the price of certain coins. I expect the downturn of Crypto will be relatively short-lived, however.

As people also realize that inflation is much more than the 6.8 percent recently reported, I predict more people will purchase Crypto related stocks and coins as an inflation hedge, because we all can’t buy a $1 million painting, or a $10 million home as an investment.

I don’t have a 401K, but if I did, I’d contact my funds manager and move from a high-growth portfolio, to a less risky low-growth one, which is usually made up of safe haven stocks, such as grocery stores, utility companies, and others that survive a down market without great distress.

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Notice: Any and all discussion of a stock or the stock market should not be considered financial advice and is for entertainment purposes only. I have a position in the stock discussed, unless otherwise declared. I often lose my car keys and forget where I parked my car. I am not a financial advisor.

Disclaimer: On January 4, 2016, the owner of WestEastonPA.com began serving on the West Easton Council following an election. Postings and all content found on this website are the opinions of Matthew A. Dees and may not necessarily represent the opinion of the governing body for The Borough of West Easton.