SHARE THIS

The Line

Most line makers in Las Vegas are calling this Super Bowl one of the hardest to handicap in recent memory. The casinos are now holding steady at the Broncos being the favorite and giving up -2.5 points. With some exceptions the Vegas players are going with Seattle and taking those 2.5 points, which by all accounts means they pretty much believe Seattle to win the game, as only 7 of the previous 47 Super Bowls were determined by a difference of a field goal in the final score.

As for the point give, just 10 of 47 Super Bowls have ever had a Vegas line of three points or fewer.

The Over/Under

The projected point total has held steady since opening at 48.5 points after the AFC and NFC Championship games were completed. The Seahawks and Broncos are projected to score a combined 48.5 points.

Early betting in Vegas saw money jumping on the Under. Most likely those who got caught up in the weather reports of what seemed like endless snowstorms expected another blizzard on game day.

As game time approaches money is now moving to the Over. No snow predicted for the game and temps that are expected to reach 4o degrees with a wind that won’t be a factor in the Met-Life Stadium.

Las Vegas Pro Picks

Marc Nelson, Aliante sports book director – Seahawks 24-20. I think the Seattle D will prove to be too much for Denver.

Tony Miller, Golden Nugget sports book director – Seahawks 20-17. Defense comes up big in this game, with Seattle’s defensive front putting pressure on Manning throughout the game. Seattle grinds out a close win.

Aaron Kessler, Golden Nugget sports book supervisor – Seahawks 23-13. I’m predicting the Seattle defense shows up, and once again, Peyton sees all the cards are on the table and folds, throwing three picks. Seattle’s offense bogs down for the most part, but a big day from Lynch (125 yards plus, one TD) and a pick-six (we’ll go out on a limb and call it for Byron Maxwell) prove to be enough, as Denver only holds the ball for three minutes in the fourth quarter.

Jay Kornegay, LVH SuperBook VP – Broncos 23-20. Seattle is a physical/aggressive team. Manning will turn this into a chess match, make them think, and slow their D down.

Ed Salmons, LVH SuperBook manager – Seahawks 27-10. Manning gets to face AFC defenses again next year.

Jeff Sherman, LVH SuperBook assistant manager – Seahawks 27-17. Seattle’s defense frustrates Manning all day.

Chris Bennett, LVH SuperBook supervisor – Seahawks 23-20. Peyton Manning can’t throw the ball deep, and now he has to face the best pass defense in the NFL. Percy Harvin should help as well. I’m respecting the NFC -3 line from before the conference championship games.

Jay Rood, MGM Resorts VP race and sport – Broncos 24-23. Broncos rally from 10 down in the fourth quarter.

Jeff Stoneback, MGM Resorts sports book hub manager – Seahawks 20-17. Seahawks defense shuts down Manning and the Broncos offense, and Marshawn Lynch helps keep Manning off the field with a big day.

Jason McCormick, Red Rock Station sports book director – Broncos 22-20. Matt Prater’s fifth field goal wins the game for the Broncos as time expires.

Chuck Esposito, Sunset Station sports book director –Seahawks 23-20. With Lynch and the mobility of Wilson, Seattle will be able to control the clock and keep the ball out of Manning’s hands. Also, on the other side of the ball with Seattle’s big and athletic DBs, the Broncos receivers won’t have as much room to roam, making it more difficult for Manning and the Broncos to sustain drives.

Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sports book director – Broncos 27-24. In the end, I just think Manning makes one more play than Wilson.

My Pick

I’ll take Seattle + 2.5 points. I like Manning, but I think the Seattle defense will have him corralled.

Because Manning is held in check:

Under 48.5 points total.

Final score:

Seattle 27
Denver 20

THE RESULTS

SEATTLE 43
DENVER 8

I picked the winner, guessing that Manning would be stymied by the Seattle defense. I never guessed he would be completely shut down.

However, I failed to get the Over/Under correct, but that’s alright – I didn’t lay money on an O/U bet.

Not only did Denver fail to overcome the Seattle defense, but Manning didn’t bring any offense, making for a totally lopsided result. Four turnovers by Denver certainly didn’t help.

Seattle’s defense was so strong that Denver managed only 27 yards rushing, compared with 135 for Seattle.

Manning went 34 for 49 to gain 279 yards in the air, but most passes were for short yardage with his receivers quickly taken down. He hardly looked like his leagues MVP, being intercepted twice.

His counterpart, Russell Wilson of Seattle, went 18 for 26 to gain 206 yards and score two touchdowns.

As a side note, this game recouped money I lost on Super Bowl XXII, when I chose Denver over Washington. In that game Denver also got pounded in a 42-10 loss. It only took 26 years to get that big loss back, plus the interest.